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This week sees the return of the premier rugby competition in the Southern Hemisphere, Super Rugby Pacific – and the usual kaleidoscope of feelings about the competition continues to dominate the online discourse.
While the organisers would, quite understandably, rather the chat be on the rugby itself than the future of the competition, such talk is natural when Super Rugby has had as many incarnations as it has had. It isn’t helped by news of changing TV deals and reduced revenue throwing trans-Tasman relations into potential jeopardy.
Super Rugby Pacific might be the most stable the competition has been since its ill-fated expansion to 18 teams nearly a decade ago, but the competition has a long way to go to return to the golden age of the Super 12. However, as the competition enters its fourth season, it is clear there is something worth pursuing here.
Super Rugby Pacific tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Cast your tips here.
What would a good year look like in 2025 for Super Rugby Pacific? Here’s five things we think need to happen:
The Blues celebrate after winning the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
This is not a complaint about the dominance of the Kiwi sides. They have set the standard for many years and if a side from outside is to win it, it has to be truly earned by beating the best. Keep being good opposition.
However, it is clear, both in the match attendance and in the results, especially evidenced by commentators like Justin Marshall, that fans on both sides of the Tasman are weary of Kiwi dominance – as it makes the competition a foregone conclusion.
Granted, the chasing pack is closing the gap – the Brumbies might have gone out in the semis again, but with an unbeaten record in Canberra and a win-loss ratio seeing them only separated from the top of the ladder by bonus points, clearly they are in the mix.
The Reds also progressed significantly in 2024, with a successful win record during the regular season against the Kiwi sides. Even the Fijian Drua could be in the conversation, with a trip to Lautoka or Suva now one of the most daunting prospects for even the best sides.
While the Kiwis will go into the season as deserved favourites, how much more will it spice up discussion around the competition if any of the teams from outside the land of the long white cloud would lift the egg basket?
Off the back of a non-New Zealand winner, the performance of the Australian sides is the elephant in the room when it comes to the future of Super Rugby Pacific.
While the ugly departure of the Rebels is an ongoing, tense situation that could have significant ramifications for the sport in Australia, the redistribution of talent to the four other franchises will put them in much better stead in 2025.
Andy Muirhead of the Brumbies celebrates scoring a try during the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific Quarter Finals. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
The Brumbies have continued to progress under Stephen Larkham, and should that continue a top two finish is achievable, and then there is Les Kiss’ Reds, who are expected to deliver big results.
Even the Western Force, home to some of the most exciting players in Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies, should ask plenty of questions – with a mammoth 17 players with international experience in their ranks.
There comes a point though when all the sides need to stand up. This year marks eleven years since an Australian side not only last won the competition – but since an Australian side made the final. If the competition is to survive, multiple Aussie teams need to stand up – and 2025 represents the best opportunity for success the four sides will have in a long time.
Realistically, if any side needs to push a case, it is the sides from the states that have the most established rugby footprints in the country. If the Reds or Waratahs get on a roll, finish near the top of table, and critically, make a run deep into finals, how much does that change the discourse around the competition?
Again, this feels like an obvious thing to strive for – and in a sense, it is – should teams start to perform, it would be expected that crowds will naturally also start to trickle back.
While it is well documented that in both trans-Tasman derbies and in Australia, crowds have been a major talking point. But overall, 2024 saw a notable uptick in attendance.
New Zealand derby matches have proven to be the best attended, as proven by several notable sell-out matches – including an at-capacity Eden Park for the Grand Final. Other locations like Fiji have also seen the crowds come out in droves – and even in Australia, there has been improvement, with the Reds seeing over 100,000 fans coming through the gates across all home games at Lang Park.
However, these numbers pale in comparison to the nearly 30,000 fans a game who would turn out to watch the Reds in the early 2010s, of the excess of 25,000 fans for the Waratahs under Michael Cheika.
As evidenced by several matches, should the Waratahs and Reds get into some form, it does not take long for the larger crowds to come back – and this should especially be the case for the likes of the Western Force and the Brumbies, who have both struggled with crowd attendances over the last few years.
To sell tickets in the 21st century, many sports have turned to the likes of creating characters and narratives, and such approaches have proven extremely effective.
From the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo selling out stadiums everywhere he goes to documentaries like Formula 1: Drive to Survive galvanising many fans to follow motorsports, it is clear an element of storytelling is a major part of selling sports – and it has taken rugby far too long to catch on to this.
The Ilona Maher craze has shown though that rugby needs more characters, with the nearly 10,000 fans who turned out to watch her more than double the club’s highest crowd attendance for a Women’s Premiership rugby match.
Super Rugby Pacific has characters – but it has been a long time since the likes of a Honeybadger got chins wagging about the competition.
The Junkyard Dog was one of Australian rugby’s biggest finds in 2024. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
With the likes of Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii proven to get bums on seats, or even the likes of characters like the Junkyard Dog, it seems that more than ever, rugby needs individuals with crossover appeal that, more than anything else, tell a great story.
They do exist in Super Rugby Pacific – but whether the competition can utilise them effectively is another question.
The last key point is that, on the topic of narratives, for Australian rugby a British & Irish Lions tour also hangs in the background.
How the players grow and develop this season will play a major part in the Wallabies’ preparation for a critical series in July – if there is any time for the players to deliver results, a Lions tour is certainly an incentive to do so.
While the Reds and Brumbies are expected to be in the mix for finals and the Force boast one of their strongest squads in years, such an equation really becomes interesting if the Waratahs also have a big year.
After finishing with the wooden spoon last year, the Tahs return with a new coach, a new staff and back office, 14 new arrivals and a jacked squad that includes 13 Wallabies. To say what will happen this season is anyone’s guess.
Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii will finally take to the field in sky blue in 2025. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
However, should the Tahs hit the ground running and mount a finals charge, it would be critical not just for the Wallabies and the Lions to have sustained success across several sides – but for Super Rugby as well.
After an encouraging first year under Darren Coleman, Tahs fans came back in droves to support the club, and while the following two seasons saw results slide, it would not be a stretch to assume sustained results would lead to fans returning again under Dan McKellar.
As the representative of the largest city in Oceania, the Waratahs’ sustained lack of success in Super Rugby has often been a hindrance to the competition. A team of this size – with one of the oldest premier grade club competitions behind it – really should have more than just one title to its name.
Make no mistake, should the Tahs rediscover the form under McKellar, the side would go a long way to transforming conceptions about the competition – and prove even more valuable for Joe Schmidt.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.