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AFL

Justin Longmuir is in the hottest seat in footy - but he's not cooked just yet

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4 days ago
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When Fremantle were ruthlessly mauled by St Kilda on Friday night, fans leapt onto social media to savage coach John Longmuir and call for his axing.

There is nothing new about splenetic supporters crucifying coaches (or players) online after an old-fashioned shellacking, as it’s now part of a well-entrenched subgenre within the oddball commentary of AFL followers.

The same when media shock jocks follow this nutty narrative, scavenging for the next clickbait headline.

However, sometimes just below the surface of the hubris, hyperbole and hysteria of supporters baying for a coach’s blood, there is a smidgeon of truth.

Longmuir’s future at the club is starting to look more than a little wobbly.

It would be irresponsible to suggest the 44-year-old should be shown the door after Fremantle were smashed in every department against the Saints.

Every team that plays finals this year, will have been towelled up at least once throughout the season.

But Freo’s lacklustre and uninspired showing against the Saints must be alarming, given that the club was talking pre-season like it was getting quotes for a mid-size trophy cabinet to neatly place the 2025 AFL premiership cup in.

This isn’t just me dining out on some secret schadenfreude and enjoying the mishaps and misery of their misfortunes, because the Dockers’ stats out of the St Kilda game tell a bleak story.

They had 48 fewer contested possessions than the Saints– the second-worst differential of any team this year. The Saints had 27 more inside 50s and the Dockers were smashed at the clearances (50-22) and the centre clearances (13-5).

Not to mention St Kilda having 95 more disposals in the forward half, where most of the fun on the night took place.
It was also Dockers’ 10th-lowest score in club history.

Dockers coach Justin Longmuir talks to his team

Justin Longmuir. (Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

History shows that teams need to win 12-13 games to play finals but the way the Dockers are tracking now, it’s unlikely the club will even get close to that.

The situation could become more dire in the next fortnight, with Fremantle set to face Collingwood and GWS.

So, if they miss out on finals for the third year in a row, surely Longmuir’s job becomes untenable?

Given the brutal business of the AFL, he could be looking for a new gig sooner, if the club capitulates like it did towards the end of last season.

Longmuir was due to come out of contract at the end of October this year, but Fremantle took the odd move of changing his agreement from a fixed-term deal to an “ongoing employment agreement”.

Dockers CEO Simon Garlick also told the ABC before the game on Friday night that Longmuir would be coaching the club in 2026.

“Yeah, absolutely. JL’s doing a phenomenal job,” he said.

“Like any senior coach, they tend to get all the blame when the result doesn’t go our way, and when you win games of footy, the credit tends to get spread around a whole bunch of people.”

Whoever is to blame for Fremantle’s inconsistency so far, Longmuir has been at the helm of the Dockers for five years and only played finals once.

His coaching record is just a tick over 50 per cent which can only buy you so much time, especially if there is little September action.

But what makes Longmuir’s position ever shakier, is Fremantle has undoubtedly one of the most gifted lists in the AFL.

It has an elite midfield, a potential Coleman Medallist in Josh Treacy and a super-talented sidekick in Jye Amiss.

The Dockers have arguably the best back six in the competition; a supremo ruckman in Sean Darcy (to be fair, he’s had ongoing injury problems) and one of the most electrifying big men in the game, Luke Jackson.

Fremantle further strengthened their playing stocks this year with the addition of boom recruit Shai Bolton from Richmond and looked to have unearthed a ripper with top draft pick Murphy Reid.

So, if you examine Longmuir’s performances through the lens of AFL clubs that demand a coach be accountable when a team fails to deliver, his fate could be sealed if he can’t get the best out of his star-studded lineup for the remainder of the season.

If that happens, it’s not being sardonic to ask: is JL the right man to lead them to that elusive premiership?

One could argue Fremantle hasn’t had its best team on the park and two-time Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe has yet to play this season.

But the three-time, All-Australia doesn’t wield the same bullocking influence in games as he once did.

The Dockers could easily turn their season around and feature in September. At the same time last year, Brisbane was languishing in 13th on the ladder, having only won three games.

However, if Fremantle misses the eight again, it’s hard to see how Longmuir survives.

With Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge and his Port Adelaide counterpart Ken Hinkley, likely to be on the market at the end of the year, the Dockers might want to put some coffee catchups in their calendar for September just in case.