A soft fortnight has eased the pressure on Carlton, but a loss to Geelong this weekend would put an end to any hope of playing truly meaningful footy this season.
A month into the season, the Blues were winless and uninspiring. They were on the receiving end of extreme criticism – a lot was naturally warranted, while other tidbits, like downplaying the quality of player Sam Walsh is, or pointed negative energy at a courageous Harry McKay, was just idiocy.
That loss to Richmond in the first game was obviously the big one, because the next three defeats were against likely finalists, if not premiership contenders. It’s more than results though, it’s about style.
The thing that is really troublesome about the Blues is really the fact that the tactics often lag when we’re in a competition that rewards proactivity.
This is such a talented list on paper, yet the way Carlton has continued to play over a longer period of time suffers from some sort of misalignment.
It’s a team that has had to deal with injuries to key personnel almost always. Naturally, with Charlie Curnow finding his groove body-wise, the floor feels significantly elevated. Pair him with McKay and the talent in each area of the ground can make up for lagging ideals from the coach.
Harry McKay celebrates a goal (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
It’s not really enough though. Michael Voss does a good job in being articulate in the media and when he finally makes a move, we do end up seeing a payoff. Often, it’s just slow, or in recent cases, it can be forced.
Calling the last two wins a result of a “soft fortnight” isn’t to detract from the fact that against much weaker opposition, the ball movement and connection across the lines have been much better, and the offensive focal point has created more space inside forward 50.
It’s a bit hard to cite season numbers now, as the last two games against teams not even looking to fire a shot have skewed the figures considerably. The inside 50 rate and efficiency once in there was really bad, but those couple of games have been quite good.
The Blues ran in waves the last couple of weeks, and it worked. The defensive running side hasn’t really been needed. In reality, there’s an element of having played a similar way the whole season, it’s just worked against the bad teams.
Carlton’s the worst team by far in terms of shots per inside 50, but they’re one of the very best in terms of tackling inside 50. They create repeated entries with pressure. That level of intensity around the ball limits the transition game of the opposition.
George Hewett has been the best player on this team by a fair stretch to start this season and his efforts in stoppages and hunting the opposition have been a big reason for Carlton’s recent positive results and in general, their ability to stay close.
He’s in the top three in the league for generating centre clearances and naturally, he’s one of the best tackling players in the game. In 2025, he is also Carlton’s leading player for score involvements.
It’s a lot of weight put on the shoulders of one player. Patrick Cripps hasn’t had his best start to the season, but he’d be able to relate to that, historically.
The issues with Carlton’s midfield are true. Their most dynamic player in the middle is without a doubt, Tom De Koning, who continues to impress in the ruck and in his follow-up.
Around Hewett though, who’s doing it on both sides of the ball, it’s Cripps, a bullocking beast, it’s Walsh, an excellent tackler with the fitness base to spread from the contest, but not at breakneck speed, and it’s Adam Cerra, their leading pressure player.
They’re all rated elite for their contested possession rate, strengths of theirs. They’re all great clearance players. According to Wheeloratings, they’re all rated poorly for the threat rating of their kicks and only Cripps’ retention rate is in the positives – and his overall kicking efficiency is at 50 per cent.
While they all have differing abilities and skillsets, the overlap is significant and it’s at a detriment to the Blues.
It’s why the unfortunate result of Brodie Kemp’s season-ending injury has opened the door of opportunity, and really forced Voss to try something different.
Brodie Kemp is tackled. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
He tried to soft-launch a bit of Jesse Motlop and Zac Williams getting a couple of centre bounces here and there earlier in the season, but their presence around stoppages has increased. The return of Elijah Hollands will see him in there. Cooper Lord’s speed is an asset that should be used more, but he seems destined for the fringes, or the vest.
Cripps resting more in attack and utilising the high half-forwards in stoppage situations isn’t a favourite move of Voss, but one that can add a bit more flair and unpredictability to the set-up.
A real weapon, even for only a couple of contests throughout the game, would be to use Adam Saad in the centre bounce or defensive half stoppages.
Perhaps it’s too creative, and even then too difficult with this taller defensive set-up the Blues run, but upon a Lachie Cowan return, adding in a player with the quickest side step and elite hit-up kicking ability as a different look, would really add another string to their bow.
But creativity and proactive moves haven’t typically been the modus operandi for Voss, or the Blues on the field, particularly in big games with the weight of expectation on them.
When things are tough, Carlton tends to return to the default set-up. It’s the same guys in the middle, blasting long to Curnow and McKay.
It’s the reliance on the best key defender in the league to keep doing his part, and it’s the hope that Saad locks down the small, and the interceptors do their jobs. As a quick aside and credit to Voss, Jack Silvagni was always unfairly maligned by supporters and the footballing world despite being the glue of the group – he’s outstanding as a key defender and should be applauded.
Jack Silvagni. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
That being said, it’s the same names that need to do the work, while the rest of the team ends up sort of just being “there”.
The best teams in the league function like a well-oiled machine, the moving parts all over the ground fill up space and rotate heavily, covering each other at every moment. Carlton often feels like it plays with the ground broken up into three separate parts, almost netball style with each position only performing what they need to.
Even when demolishing bad teams, there’s only the meshing between midfield and offence. The defence might position itself higher, but seldom are they involved in attacking plays.
That’s the real challenge facing Carlton this weekend, in what will be a game the truly defines the club’s 2025 season.
The Blues will have had a couple of extra days off compared to Geelong, who are coming off an epic and hard-fought tussle against the Hawks.
The Cats are really, really good, but with Tom Stewart having to take a bit more accountability in defence and in the absence of Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij, they’re susceptible defensively.
Curnow’s found form, McKay should be back, Lewis Young deserves credit for working on his forward craft and Voss simply must keep using Cripps in attack to stretch the Cats.
Voss must continue to expand the number of players he uses at stoppages to support Hewett, but to also offer better service to a forward line that can really cause damage this weekend.
The last fortnight has been soft for the Blues, but there have definitely been positive signs of change that can be effective against good teams and get this club back to where it needs to be to meet stakeholder expectations.
Somehow, the last two matches have eased the pressure on Carlton enormously, but it doesn’t change a single thing about what this game means in the bigger picture.
The Blues simply must keep trying to change things up and offer different looks at the Cats in order to topple a flag favourite.
If upon this challenge, Voss and his team revert back to their usual style, you can close the curtains on Carlton and its coach.
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