If you were a neutral supporter, it would seem that everything’s coming up Milhouse for the Lions.
Since the appointment of the universally well-regarded Chris Fagan, the Lions have been a finals contender for all but two seasons, they have managed to land a superstar at seemingly every trade period (Charlie Cameron, Lachie Neale, Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley, Tom Doedee), they have nailed their draft picks, and they have now won a premiership from fifth on the ladder.
And to top it off, arguably the best player in last year’s draft has fallen in their lap; the brother of their Norm Smith Medallist, Levi Ashcrroft.
If Lions supporters aren’t thankful now, they’ll never be.
With all this success, there’s a feeling that the Lions could go back-to-back. And why not?
They have possibly the best list in the league and they have superstars on every line. Though they are entering 2025 with the second-oldest list in the competition (behind Collingwood), the average age is 25.4 which is hardly old. If you take away the gun outliers that push the average up– Cameron (30), Darcy Fort (31), Ryan Lester (32), Neale (31) and Zorko (35) – the list is not that old.
Players like Jarrod Berry and Hugh McCluggage (both 27) are right in their prime, along with Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Brandon Starcevich (26), and Noah Answerth (25).
What stands against them? Well, history.
Virtually every reigning premier goes into the new season as flag favourites. And why not? They’ve forged a game-style that can stand up in finals, confidences are up, and synergy amongst the teammates is at an all-time high.
But footy seasons are long and the shift in going from the hunters to the hunted can be a difficult transition. Moreover, playing at the pointy end of September means that their pre-season is a month shorter which can lead to injuries and players being physically underprepared the following year. This is a big reason for why the last two premiers – Geelong and Collingwood – went from winning the grand final to missing finals the next year.
Cast your mind back to the beginning of the 2024 season. The Lions were going in with big expectations after just falling short in the 2023 grand final.
Then what looked like an annus horribilis ensued – Coleman did his ACL, the Lions lost their first three games, and, just when they seemed to be at a make-or-break point in their season, Gardiner and McCarthy ruptured their ACLs.
If this were a Hollywood script, the sheer level of adversity for which the Lions overcame would almost seem too unbelievable. This context is important because, it was out of that hardship that the premiership was born.
With the burden of the expectation of winning the flag now gone, the Lions’ backs were against the wall. Forget about September, they had to win now to qualify. What followed was a team entirely concerned about process, which led to the most impressive run towards the grand final since at least the Western Bulldogs in 2016.
Can that level of pressure be replicated in a new season when these players have tasted the ultimate success? Even if it could, is that level of urgency sustainable over the long-term?
Though last season’s injuries have given testament to the Lions’ unheralded depth, there is one area of the ground where the Lions are thin.
The surprise retirement of Joe Daniher has thrown a major curveball in their capacity to go back-to-back.
As one of the more enigmatic characters in the AFL this past century, Daniher is one of a kind and difficult to replace.
Joe Daniher celebrates Brisbane’s 2024 premiership with injured teammate Lincoln McCarthy. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Some have pointed to the tall stocks the Lions have waiting in the wings, such as Sam Day (197cm), Brandon Ryan (200cm), and Henry Smith (206cm). Although they may be comparable to the 201cm Daniher in size, the mercurial forward has nevertheless left giant shoes to fill.
It’s one thing to be able to size up against the biggest defenders – it’s another thing to have the speed and athleticism of Daniher. What also goes unmentioned is his durability, playing 96 of a possible 101 games for the Lions.
Of the possible replacements, Day probably looms as the most likely in the short-term given that the Lions picked him up in the wake of Daniher’s retirement. Day played 155 senior games (to Daniher’s 204) for Gold Coast, so he clearly has the experience and could readily slot into the Lions’ squad.
But expecting Day to just slot in and in any way emulate Daniher’s output is fanciful. In his thirteen seasons at the Suns, Day kicked 117 goals. When you compare to Daniher’s 204 goals in just his four years at the Lions alone (and 395 career goals), it would be idealistic to expect him to in any way replicate the retireed great.
A player that has rocketed into contention is Ty Gallop. The former Lions Academy player was taken at pick 42 in the draft and looked very much to be a project player but, after kicking four goals in the club’s intraclub match, Gallop has suddenly shot into the selection frame. Of course, it’s unrealistic to expect a first-year player to fill Daniher’s shoes but he could nevertheless play a role as a serviceable tall forward.
Then there’s Ryan. Taken by Hawthorn in the 2023 mid-season draft, he looked like a surprise bolter when he managed three senior games for the Hawks in the back-end of that year. But his career has somewhat stalled since crossing to Brisbane at the end of that season, when Jack Gunston decided to come home.
With the Lions needing a third tall, Ryan had a clear run at the position, but he did nothing to distinguish himself amongst the pack, and was overtaken by draftee Logan Morris.
There are also some left-field options. Although more of a ruck, Fort played forward in 2022 while Eric Hipwood was recovering from his ACL and was serviceable, kicking 9 goals over 13 games.
Fort’s 17 career goals are far cry from Daniher’s 395 but, now that Fort bears the surprise mantle of being the Lions’ premiership ruckman (with the injury to Oscar McInerney), an argument could be made for him to come in and play ruck and move the ‘Big O’ into the forward line.
This may seem crazy since McInerney is an elite ruckman, but many forget that he began as a forward. He was a handy forward too, holding his own in there as the third tall to Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay, before coming into the ruck when Stefan Martin’s body started to decline.
McInerney did the team thing back then and took on the ruck position, could he again do what’s best for the team and move forward? With 63 goals to his name, McInerney has greater proven form than most of the other potential Daniher replacements. If I could clone him and have one Big O in the ruck and another in the forward line, I would.
Of course, it’s possible that the Lions don’t have to look far for a Daniher replacement. Perhaps Day (or Gallop or Ryan or Smith) can be a serviceable, role-player up forward and Eric Hipwood can step up and be the main goal-kicking forward.
Hipwood is somewhat of a polarising figure within the Lions community, perhaps unfairly. Like Daniher, there are very few players of his stature that are as athletic and durable to the extent that, when Daniher was first recruited, I questioned the efficacy of recruiting a Hipwood clone rather than a bigger bodied forward (a la Jeremy Cameron).
His output has nevertheless been steady – since his mid-season debut in 2016 (where he played 10 consecutive games), Hipwood’s lowest yield came in his ACL-interrupted seasons in 2021 and 2022, but he still managed 16 and 17 games respectively.
Clearly, Hipwood has benefited from the presence of Daniher in the forward line, which has allowed the Queenslander to play without the burden of the opposition’s best defender. But Hipwood kicked 37 and 35 goals respectively in 2018 and 2019, when he was a less experienced player and Daniher wasn’t at the club.
It’s conceivable that, now that he is in his tenth year and potentially the main target in the forward 50, Hipwood’s output will increase.
It’s also possible that the Lions might be able to compensate for Daniher in other areas.
Daniher’s significance has already been highlighted but part of what has made the Lions such as a dynamic force in the past few seasons, is their idiosyncratic and unconventional forward line. In fact, prior to the dominance of Daniher in the past two seasons, Charlie Cameron had been the Lions leading goalkicker for four consecutive seasons.
Cameron is the same age as Daniher. In his 2024 season, he kicked 44 goals from 27 games, which was lower than his usual lofty standards but decent. That’s when he’s gotten the opposition’s best small defender. As others like Kai Lohmann grow in prominence, opposition attention could be diverted from Cameron, allowing the livewire small to dominate.
Lohmann had a career best season in 2024, playing all 27 games for 36 goals. For a player that had only seven games across two seasons and one goal, this was a considerable improvement.
While progress isn’t necessarily linear and Lohmann’s rise in form will inevitably result in more attention from the opposition, he will continue to develop and provide excitement to Lions fans for years to come.
Likewise, Callum Ah Chee is also a surprise force in the Lions forward line. The versatile former Gold Coast Sun has found a home up forward and kicked 27 goals last season, including four in the grand final.
So it may be that look to a role player like Sam Day to fill Daniher’s role as a tall target up forward, while it’s the dynamic smalls that make up for the loss of firepower.
The Daniher departure looms as the biggest question mark on the Lions for season 2025, but it’s not insurmountable.
Richmond’s flag hopes took a dive with the departure of Alex Rance up the other end of the ground in 2019 but his absence forced them to innovate and they went back-to-back in 2020.
The Lions themselves are no strangers to adapting on the run, given their injury crisis in 2024. Any team that has sustained success has to adapt and evolve.
Time will tell whether the Lions’ 2024 fairytale was a mere flash in the pan… or the start of a dynasty.
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