No club has a murkier future in the AFL than Melbourne.
Heading into a rollercoaster season for many teams ahead of expansion in a couple of years, the Demons have boxed themselves into a corner where there are so few options that will see them emerge as a contender in the next decade, it’s difficult to get swayed by promising recent results.
They’ve won three games in a row and are heading into a tough contest against Hawthorn, knowing that they haven’t lost to the Hawks in over seven years. The Fremantle win was impressive – the ability to put a score on the board was huge, but it was the forward pressure and control of the game that really caught the eye. The win against the Eagles was a tussle, but coach Simon Goodwin indicated that their aim was to finish off strong, which they did.
Anzac Day Eve was a diabolical game of footy, but it got them the four points.
Unfortunately for Melbourne, none of it really matters. Nor does Goodwin making moves like dropping Bayley Fritsch for a week, or giving Jacob van Rooyen a run in the twos.
In trading away their 2025 first-round draft pick, the Demons sacrificed the opportunity to control their own season. It came with the belief this squad could have a crack a September run this season. They look far from capable of doing that.
The result was the drafting of Xavier Lindsay, to go along with Harvey Langford, two surefire long-term prospects that have been regulars immediately.
Outside of that, the youth cupboard is bare.
It can’t be labelled a mistake to make a trade to get a player a club believes in, but the error can easily come from a misdiagnosis of where the teams sits.
Coach Simon Goodwin has been under pressure for a while. The Demons got the magical flag a few years ago. but as time has continued to go on, the coach has been inflexible in a league where creativity is its lifeblood.
The Dees’ direction has always been a little puzzling, particularly in recent times. Melbourne have had four top-13 picks in the last two drafts, but they’ve not really been competing in that time.
Throughout this time, they seem to have thought they were flag contenders making smart moves to boost their youth stocks while taking it up to the very best.
At draft time, particularly in 2023, their picks have been underwhelming, while they also failed to take advantage of the peak value they had with Harrison Petty, which could have netted them a transformative two further first-round draft picks from Adelaide.
Christian Salem reacts to Melbourne’s loss to Gold Coast. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The idea this whole time is that the veteran group will take them to the promised land and be around for a while to come.
Right now, they’re wasting the efforts of a legendary ruckman in Max Gawn, arguably the greatest the game has ever seen.
Christian Petracca has been a wonderful player, but he’s not getting better. Steven May is 33 years of age and isn’t what he once was.
Jake Lever’s absence will be cited as a key reason as to why the Demons aren’t playing well this year, but isn’t it then a bigger indictment on the Melbourne hierarchy to not have had a back-up plan for such an important player going down?
Then there’s Clayton Oliver.
This won’t be some sort of hit-piece on one of the most talented players in the game, like everyone seems to want to do these days. He’s 28 this season and despite his struggles, has had patches in games this season where we’ve seen the A+ grade midfielder that he’s capable of being again.
Still, if he’s at Melbourne next season, he’ll be 29 and still relied upon heavily as a key cog in the midfield.
Despite the talent, it’s again being so heavily dependent on what worked four years ago.
That’s the issue with the Demons, not the player himself.
Melbourne has always relied heavily on its stars and has failed to spread the load and appropriately transition to extend its September window. Now without its first-round pick in 2025, they have to try and tread water.
In Round 8, the Demons put out a team that was the third-most experienced of any side. It wasn’t enormously different against the Tigers either.
Of the younger guys getting games that have strong potential, we’ve got the Langford and Lindsay duo, while Trent Rivers has found form across half-back. They like what Caleb Windsor and Koltyn Tholstrup bring, Jake Bowey has gone from maligned to appreciated as a running half-back, and Judd McVee is talented.
Unfortunately for Melbourne, that’s about it if they don’t retain their most talented player in Kysaiah Pickett.
Van Rooyen is out of favour – a spell was needed but he isn’t some dominant prospect. Neither is Matt Jefferson, another high draft pick yet to justify it. Both would be better suited to having a strong presence to accompany them and ease the pressure of development.
That’s another issue to address. Have the Demons properly set up strong support structures to assist in the development of the youth they do have?
There’s no key forward to help the young ones. Alex Neal-Bullen, the perfect mentor for a Tholstrup, has left for greener pastures.
Who are Petracca and Oliver handing the keys to? Langford could be one, but there isn’t another prospect there. How about Gawn in the ruck? Unless they believe fully in the undersized Will Verrall, there’s no one else to take advantage of this incredible learning tree.
Even defensively, the Demons are stocked up for half-backs when it’s key defenders they need to soak up the experience of May and Lever. Jed Adams is an intercepting type who should get a run this year but again, there’s not much there.
It’s just a bunch of half-backs and outside players with offensive skill … and no one to kick to.
This is isn’t revisionism, with unrealistic thoughts as to who the Demons could have drafted and what that could have looked like for the future.
Melbourne fans already know the four players taken after Windsor were Daniel Curtin, Ethan Read (an Academy selection), Nate Caddy and Connor O’Sullivan.
Windsor will probably be a nice player. The Demons don’t necessarily need nice players.
Max Gawn. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Two months into the season, we know players have been rumoured to want to leave and it will be interesting to see how the Demons manage that.
There’s a difference between being too stubborn (as in the Petty situation) and taking advantage of a unique opportunity to reset the team (Pickett, potentially).
What they can’t afford to do is throw money at a middle-aged free agent and believe that it’ll extend their window again, which is such an easy trap to fall into.
The whole Goodwin question will inevitably arise again. There’s an in-built loyalty that inevitably exists and it’s on the coaches to repay that faith with ingenuity.
Clubs cannot afford to be middle-of-the-road ahead of Tasmania’s arrival. They either must compete, or commence the rebuild immediately.
Stockpiling talent, and having strong leaders that can help develop emerging guns, are as important as having the underlying depth to be competitive in September.
Melbourne currently have neither of those things and will simply be scraping for survival without some bold moves in 2025.
They’ve not lost for a few weeks and are heading into the weekend full of confidence, but supporters remain weary of Goodwin and his group.
Once, the Demons looked odd-on to create a dynasty.
Now, they’re the most ill-prepared club in an expanding competition.
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