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Penrith will have to defy 117 years of premiership history to win the title after slumping to their fifth straight defeat.
The Panthers’ quest for a fifth straight title is all but over a quarter of the way into the season after they went down 30-12 to the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium.
With no team ever recovering from a 1-5 start to lift the trophy, history is against Penrith.
Reality is also heavily against them. Due to the cumulative effect of players leaving the club and inexperienced newbies in their place, Penrith seemingly no longer have a side capable of going all the way.
While they have remained well below their best, the Dolphins deserve kudos aplenty for the way they have bounced back with two wins on the trot after going winless in the opening four rounds.
Everyone keeps waiting for the Panthers to find their groove but there comes a time where you have to concede that they just don’t have that collective oomph which made them champions for four straight years.
When they dominated early proceedings against the Dolphins, it looked like they were awakening from their slumber.
“They’ve found their rhythm. This is the Penrith of old,” Andrew Johns said on Nine commentary.
But it was telling that after 10 minutes of sustained pressure camped in the Dolphins’ red zone, the Panthers not only couldn’t come up with points but they conceded a long-range try soon after the home side weathered the storm.
Penrith tried valiantly throughout the match but they were often flat-footed in attack, passing sideways to stationary players when one of their trademarks in their golden era has been bodies in motion on both sides of the ruck.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow celebrates after scoring. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
It took a month for Kristian Woolf to break his duck at the Dolphins but the monkey is well and truly off his back.
Animal analogies aside, the Redcliffe club is starting to live up to its potential.
In their first two years, the Dolphins were written off as also-rans before starting the season strongly then fading as the rounds wore on.
This time around they were considered a strong chance leading into the season to make the finals but did not much of anything in losing their first four fixtures.
But with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Herbie Farnworth now getting more involved and halfback Isaiya Katoa taking the right option nine times out of 10, they have found the formula that can lift them well into playoff contention in just their third year in the big league.
The Dolphins danced their way to the lead inside the third minute when the Hammer knocked the first nail into Penrith’s coffin.
Farnworth embarrassed Tago by scooting around his opposing centre before Tabuai-Fidow backed up on the inside for a 6-0 advantage.
Penrith hit back when Nathan Cleary caught the Hammer in a rare moment of being too slow to react with Casey McLean pouncing on the grubber.
The Hammer was again on the spot when the Dolphins again struck from inside their own half when Jake Averillo broke free before sending his flying fullback to the stripe.
Paul Alamoti clearly didn’t pay attention to the crackdown last round, coming in off his wing to clock Tom Gilbert with a high hit with his shoulder in the 26th minute to leave the visitors down to 12 for 10 minutes.
It was a dopey play – “direct contact, no intent to wrap” said referee Grant Atkins as he sent him on his way.
The Dolphins capitalised with Jack Bostock making a break down his vacant flank before swinging the ball wide for Averillo to touch down on the other side of the field.
Cleary tried a two-point field goal just before the interval after a penalty kick for touch.
But by the time he loaded up, Kurt Donaghue charged it down and the Panthers narrowly avoided conceding a fourth try on the siren. It was that kind of half for the premiers.
Down 18-6, Penrith needed to score first in the second half but three minutes later, Josh Kerr’s offload gifted fellow bench forward Connelly Lemuelu the easiest of tries.
Bostock had a shocker trying to kick a Cleary grubber over the dead-ball line but only succeeded in booting it back to Moses Leota for the Penrith prop to make it a 12-point deficit with six minutes left.
The young winger was again in the spotlight a minute later when he denied McLean a try with a desperate lunge which caused him to botch a touchdown.
Tabuai-Fidow streaked away to complete his try-scoring treble as the final siren sounded to cap off a superb night at the back.
Blaize Talagi finally got his chance as Penrith’s starting five-eighth and the Eels recruit was emblematic of the team overall.
He never stopped trying but he could not get going.
The teenage rising star made plenty of runs as he took a back seat to Cleary in the playmaking duties.
He got caught out in defence for the second Hammer try and coughed up a straightforward pass late in first half.
But the Panthers didn’t sign him to be an instant replacement for Jarome Luai. He will be a long-term prospect for them and Penrith will have to put up with some growing pains with their new pivot which should pay dividends down the track.
Johns believes Katoa will be the next NSW Origin halfback after Cleary’s rep career is over.
That is probably quite a few years away but for now, the Dolphins can be content that they have the best young playmaker in the NRL whose name is not Sam Walker.
Katoa plays like a veteran even though he is just 20. He had nearly twice as many touches as his halves partner Kodi Nikorima, taking all but five of the team’s kicks in general play.
Johns in commentary highlights the direct nature of Katoa’s play. He is not afraid to take the ball to the line and wear a bruise or two in order to put support players through gaps.
He is of course a Panthers junior and they were fuming when the expansion team lured him from Sydney’s west to the north of Brisbane three years ago with a lucrative contract based on the hope that he would be worth the risk.
Katoa has certainly morphed into the player that the Dolphins were hoping to get when they took that gamble on a teenager with zero NRL games and with Tabuai-Fidow firing, Nikorima helping out where need be and Jeremy Marshall-King one of the most reliable hookers in the competition, he does not have to overplay his hand.
A set move can be a great way to break the shackles of rugby league’s tendency for predictable play.
But the one that Penrith unveiled midway through the first half was an uncharacteristically poor option from the NRL’s master tacticians.
Firstly, Talagi feigned to feed the scrum then left it on the ground for winger Tom Jenkins to do the deed.
Then they passed to Cleary who chipped ahead but way too shallow and Izack Tago was penalised for pushing a Dolphins defender out of the way while he tried to regather.